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This year's El Nio will almost certainly become the strongest ever recorded, an analysis by a prominent climate researcher has warned. Though other scientists have cautioned that it's still too early to say what it will unleash. Dynamical models now assign a 90% chance of the 2026-2027 El Nio being an all-time record event, sending temperatures in the Pacific Ocean up to around 3.6 degrees Celsius (6.5 degrees Fahrenheit) above average, according to an analysis by Zeke Hausfather, a research scientist at Berkeley Earth and an author of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Seventh Assessment Report.As the warm phase of a multiyear natural climate pattern, the El Nio could bring unprecedented temperature extremes to an already-warming world. The natural climate pattern is infamous for boosting global temperatures and fueling disruptive weather events such as floods and droughts. A strong El Nio doesn't guarantee more severe weather impacts. The current El Nio models are also imperfect predictions of what's to come, and we won't know the true nature of this El Nio event until it peaks, likely later this year. However, forecasters have been warning of potentially supercharged El Nio conditions for months, and as more data emerges, there are more reasons to prepare.According to projections by the World Meteorological Organization, the current El Nio officially declared on June 11 is on track to rapidly develop into a "strong" event between July and September. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center now predicts a more than 80% likelihood of very strong El Nio conditions taking hold by the end of the year, ranking this El Nio event among the largest in the historical record."These are striking forecasts," Emily Black, a professor of terrestrial processes and climate at the University of Reading and a senior scientist at the National Centre for Atmospheric Science in the U.K., told Live Science in an email. "El Nio forecasts always come with uncertainty, but the level of agreement between models at this time of year, combined with the observed warming already underway in the tropical Pacific, means this should be taken very seriously.""The important point is that a very strong El Nio would substantially shift the odds of damaging weather in many parts of the world, particularly in the Global South with severe impact on livelihoods," Black added. The International Rescue Committee, a humanitarian organization, has warned that the intense El Nio conditions threaten to unleash severe flooding and drought across East Africa and Asia, hitting some of the most vulnerable communities, Al Jazeera reported Tuesday (July 14). Residents wade through stagnant water over a flooded road at Kohoto estate in Naivasha, Kenya on November 17, 2025 (Image credit: Tony Karumba/AFP via Getty Images)During El Nio, warmer waters gather east of the equatorial Pacific, forcing the jet stream south. In the U.S., this typically brings warmer, drier conditions to the Northeast, while the Gulf Coast and Southeast experience an increased risk of flooding. Globally, the net result of the warmer waters is more heat in the atmosphere, on top of the temperature rise from human-driven global warming. "El Nio is a natural climate phenomenon, but it is now happening against the backdrop of a much warmer planet," Black said. "That matters because a strong El Nio releases heat and energy into an already warmed world.""This does not mean every impact can be attributed simply to El Nio or simply to climate change," Black added. "The two interact. El Nio can load the dice towards drought in some regions, flooding in others, marine heatwaves, disrupted monsoons and unusually high global temperatures. Climate change makes many heat extremes more severe and can intensify heavy rainfall because a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture."The last El Nio event occurred between 2023 and 2024. Both years broke temperature records, with 2024 becoming the hottest on record and the first to breach the 1.5-degree- Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) warming limit set by the 2016 Paris Agreement. The current El Nio is forecast to be more intense than the one in 2023 and 2024, with the projected "very strong" status putting it in a different class of severity.The strongest El Nio in history? Hausfather's analysis reports that there's around a 90% chance that the current El Nio will be the strongest ever recorded, with data from multimodel forecasts suggesting that it may obliterate the previous record. "With the July runs now in from 667 ensemble members across 14 different seasonal forecast models, it looks like this year's El Nio is not only very likely to be the strongest event since reliable records began it may end up the strongest by a truly mind-blowing margin," Hausfather wrote in The Climate Brink Substack post published Monday (July 13). NOAA recognizes El Nio conditions when the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean is at least 0.5 C (0.9 F) warmer than the historical average, while wind, surface pressure and rainfall in the region are also consistent with El Nio conditions. The El Nio is then categorized as weak, moderate, strong or very strong. A very strong El Nio (above 2 C, or 3.6 F, warmer than the historical average) is often nicknamed a "super" El Nio, though it's not a scientific term. The July models suggest that temperatures will likely sail past 2 C above average in the coming months and could potentially even exceed 3.5 C (6.3 F) above average by the end of the year. This is based on newly introduced sea surface temperature forecasts that account for rising background temperatures that can inflate El Nio warming figures. In the traditional and most widely used indices, the temperature-anomaly forecasts cluster closer to 4 C (7.2 F), with some even exceeding 4 C.This Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich satellite image captures the massive wave of warm water and higher-than-usual sea surfaces (red) that stretched across the Pacific on June 8, just a few days before El Nio was declared. (Image credit: Data for the map were acquired by the Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich satellite and processed by scientists at NASAs Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL).NASA Earth Observatory/Lauren Dauphin)In The Climate Brink Substack, Hausfather noted that the multimodel median for the event's peak is currently forecast at 3.6 C (6.5 F), or around 0.8 C (1.4 F) hotter than the prior record holder (2.75 C, set in the 2015-2016 El Nio event). Hausfather wrote that around 91% of ensemble members (individual computer models) have this El Nio exceeding the 2015-2016 record at their peak around 77% likelihood in the newly introduced indices. However, Black stressed that the models are still estimates, and not guarantees. "It is certainly plausible that this could become a record-breaking El Nio, and the latest forecasts make that a real possibility rather than a remote one," Black said. "However, I would still be cautious about treating any probability estimate as a certainty.""There are two reasons for caution," she added. "First, this event has not peaked yet, and El Nio events usually reach their maximum strength later in the year. Second, 'strongest ever recorded' depends on the index, dataset and baseline used." "Impacts are what matter"The most severe El Nio events have left a trail of devastation in their wake. For example, the 2015-2016 El Nio saw a record-breaking hurricane season in the central North Pacific, severe drought in the Caribbean and Ethiopia, and, of course, abnormally hot global temperatures, according to NOAA's Climate.gov. If the forecasts pan out, the current El Nio will match or exceed the 2015-2016 event, as well as an even more infamous super El Nio that occurred between 1877 and 1878, long before modern recordkeeping of El Nio began in 1950. The 1877-1878 event likely fueled an extreme drought that fed into the 1876-1878 global famine, which ultimately killed more than 50 million people making it among the worst humanitarian crises in history. However, the disaster was far from just an environmental one, with extractive colonial agricultural policies helping to create conditions for a massive humanitarian crisis. Nonetheless, the famine highlights what can happen when environmental and socioeconomic factors converge. RELATED STORIESTropical forests stop absorbing carbon dioxide during El Nio events. This year could be the worst.'One of the most rapid transitions that I've seen': NOAA forecaster on how this year's El Nio could shatter records''It affects your daily life suddenly': Sea level researcher explains why once-in-a-century floods could become the new normalEven though the world has changed a lot since the 19th century, experts have said a super El Nio could still cause severe shocks to our food systems. This is especially true at a time when researchers say food insecurity is not just confined to low-income countries and that climate change is already pushing agricultural systems to the brink. The El Nio-Southern Oscillation cycle triggers a warm El Nio and then a cold La Nia roughly every two to seven years, with each phase typically lasting around nine to 12 months. Carbon Brief has predicted that 2026 is likely to be the second-warmest year on record, with the intensifying El Nio increasing the likelihood that 2027 will be the warmest year ever recorded. The strength of an El Nio event does not necessarily correspond to the size of its influence or impact, according to the Climate Prediction Center. More severe events typically, but not always, increase the certainty of expected impacts. Black believes the impact of an El Nio event is more important than where it ranks in the observational record. "Records are compelling, but impacts are what matter," Black said. "Even if it falls just short of a record, a very strong El Nio can still have serious consequences. Finally, these forecasts are concerning, but they are also useful: they give societies time to anticipate possible impacts and act before the worst effects are felt."

U.S. health officials have identified shredded iceberg lettuce served at Taco Bell as one source of contamination behind an outbreak of parasitic infections affecting over 1,000 people.The outbreak has been caused by the protozoan parasite Cyclospora cayetanensis, which can enter the body when someone consumes food or water contaminated with the parasite. Since May 1, there have been 1,644 confirmed cases across Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio, West Virginia and Michigan, which is currently the hardest-hit state.(Health officials are also investigating additional cases of Cyclospora infection in the U.S. that have yet to be linked to this specific lettuce-related outbreak. Those other potential cases remain under investigation and total over 5,100, per the Centers of Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).) In the five-state outbreak, there have been 94 hospitalizations and no deaths to date.Through an investigation, health officials found that all 1,644 of the sickened people with confirmed cases of Cyclospora reported eating Taco Bell in Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Ohio or West Virginia before becoming ill. Interviews with the affected individuals suggested that shredded lettuce might be a common source of exposure. The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) then investigated the source of the lettuce, identifying a single supplier of iceberg lettuce from Mexico that was used by Taco Bell locations where the people ate before becoming ill. News reports have named California-based Taylor Farms as the supplier."FDA is working directly with the identified supplier to determine if potentially contaminated shredded iceberg lettuce remains on the market," an FDA notice states. "As part of this investigation, FDA and state partners have initiated collection of product samples for testing and analysis." The investigation is ongoing, and additional sources of contamination or affected restaurants could possibly be identified later, the FDA noted. In the meantime, Taco Bell has said it will stop using lettuce from the implicated supplier. "Taco Bell is working to stop use of all lettuce implicated by this investigation. Not all Taco Bell locations in these states received implicated product," the FDA statement says.Related stories32 scary parasitic diseasesNever-before-seen parasite is resistant to ivermectinWhy we need parasites, despite them leeching life from othersCurrently, the CDC is warning consumers not to eat shredded iceberg lettuce served at Taco Bell locations in Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Ohio or West Virginia.Case counts reported by individual states may differ from the FDA's and CDC's counts, because states may include both probable and confirmed cases. The FDA and CDC will update their totals once they can confirm additional cases reported to them.Symptoms of Cyclospora infection typically emerge two to 14 days after a person consumes the parasite. These symptoms include watery diarrhea, fatigue, cramping, bloating, gas and loss of appetite, and without treatment, they can last between a few days to a month or more. The infection is treated with an antibiotic, which blocks the parasite's ability to multiply.This article is for informational purposes only and is not meant to offer medical advice.