Recent changes add up to a case for cautious optimism on better accuracy, but that’s far from a guarantee.
The polls underestimated Donald J. Trump in 2016.
They underestimated him again in 2020.
So can we trust the polls this time?
I’m asked this question a lot, and if I only get one quick reply, my answer is simple: no.
No, you can’t trust the polls — at least if you mean by “trust” what I think you do. You can’t safely assume that the candidate leading in the polls is going to...
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