This Metric At Age 7 Could Predict Your Risk Of Cardiovascular Death In Mid-Life

Elevated blood pressure at age 7 is associated with an increased risk of dying prematurely of cardiovascular disease, new preliminary research has revealed. The risk was most prominent for children with blood pressure measurements in the top 10 percent for their age, sex, and height.

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“Specifically, having hypertension or elevated blood pressure as a child may increase the risk of death by 40 percent to 50 percent over the next five decades of an individual’s life,” Dr Alexa Freedman, lead author of the study and an assistant professor in the department of preventive medicine at Northwestern University’s Feinberg School of Medicine in Chicago, said in a statement. Freedman admitted that the team was “surprised” to identify such a link between high blood pressure in childhood and serious cardiovascular complications in mid-life.

“Our results highlight the importance of screening for blood pressure in childhood and focusing on strategies to promote optimal cardiovascular health beginning in childhood.”

The findings were presented at the American Heart Association’s Hypertension Scientific Sessions 2025 and as such have not yet been peer-reviewed.

High blood pressure – also known as hypertension – is a major risk factor for cardiovascular disease, however, the evidence for long-term mortality risk is limited. As elevated blood pressure in children is becoming more and more common, it has become increasingly important to better our understanding of this link to help lower the risk of health conditions later in life.

Previous research has demonstrated that heightened blood pressure in older children, with an average age of 12 years, increased the risk of cardiovascular death by middle age (average age of 46). But before now, no study had investigated the impact of both systolic (top number) and diastolic (bottom number) blood pressure in childhood on long-term cardiovascular death risk in a diverse group.

The current study extends follow-up into the mid-50s, focusing on a cohort of almost 38,000 US children born to women enrolled in the US Collaborative Perinatal Project between 1959 and 1965. At age 7, the children had their blood pressures taken and the measurements were converted to age-, sex-, and height-specific percentiles, according to the American Academy of Pediatrics guidelines. Childhood blood pressure was categorized as either: normal (<90th percentile), elevated (90th-94th percentile), or hypertension (≥95th percentile).

The researchers then used the National Death Index to follow up on the individuals’ survival status or cause of death as of 2016, when the average follow-up age was 54. By this point, 2,729 individuals had died, with 487 cardiovascular deaths. 

After controlling for demographic factors as well as for childhood body mass index, to ensure the findings were related to childhood blood pressure itself, the team found that children who had higher blood pressure at age 7 were at greater risk of premature cardiovascular mortality by their mid-50s. 

Both the elevated blood pressure and hypertension categories were linked with around a 40 to 50 percent higher risk of early cardiovascular death in adulthood. Even among children whose blood pressure was within the normal range, readings that were moderately higher than average had a greater risk of premature cardiovascular death – 13 percent for systolic and 18 percent for diastolic blood pressure.

“The results of this study support monitoring blood pressure as an important metric of cardiovascular health in childhood,” said Dr Bonita Falkner, an American Heart Association volunteer expert and emeritus professor of pediatrics and medicine at Thomas Jefferson University, who was not involved in the study.

The findings are preliminary, and the study had several limitations, namely that only one blood pressure measurement was taken at age 7 and that participants were primarily Black or white, meaning the results may not be generalizable beyond these ethnic groups. Despite this, the experts are still highlighting the importance of blood pressure in childhood as an indicator of future health.

“Even in childhood, blood pressure numbers are important because high blood pressure in children can have serious consequences throughout their lives. It is crucial to be aware of your child’s blood pressure readings,” Freedman added.

The study is published in JAMA.