Potential World Cup manipulation on Polymarket flagged by sports advisory group

An independent group that monitors potential manipulation of sports competitions has announced the results of a yet-to-be-released report examining irregularities related to betting and gambling on FIFA World Cup matches.

The organization called Group of Copenhagen monitored all 104 matches and determined that 15 games rose to the level of requiring enhanced monitoring. The group also assessed 12 major controversies from an "integrity risk perspective."

While the Group of Copenhagen has yet to release its full detailed report, the New York Times has reported that a few of these flagged events involve the online prediction market Polymarket.

The report singles out how $4.8 million was placed on Polymarket for Spain not to defeat Cape Verde in their group stage game, which was the first game either team played in this year's tournament. The game's result, a goalless draw, was considered to be one of the biggest shocks of the entire World Cup. Spain was a tournament favorite and went on to win the championship. Cape Verde was playing its first-ever World Cup game.

However, much more notable than a surprising game outcome is the market that was opened on Polymarket based on the red card issued to the U.S. Men's National Team striker Folarin Balogun.

According to the report, a Polymarket market was opened on July 2, which asked: “Will Folarin Balogun play against Belgium?” That was the same day that Balogun was issued a red card in U.S.'s match against Bosnia and Herzegovina. The red card meant Balogun would not be able to play in the match against Belgium.

However, on July 5, before the U.S. vs. Belgium match, FIFA announced that Balogun would be allowed to play and that his ban would be suspended. President Donald Trump would take credit for FIFA's decision shortly after, saying he had a phone call with FIFA head Gianni Infantino. Reporting later confirmed that U.S. officials went to work immediately following the red card being issued to have it overturned.

Did Trump officials who were privy to this information partake in insider trading to make a profit on Polymarket? It's a legitimate question to ask, especially in light of recent news that Trump's teleprompter operator profited from their position by placing trades on Kalshi.

Prediction markets have blown up in popularity in recent years. Kalshi, a prediction market that partnered with the World Cup's official prediction market sponsor, ADI Predictstreet, has said that a record $1.2 billion in trades was placed on its platform to predict the World Cup winner. The company said it also gained 3 million new users directly from the World Cup.

According to experts interviewed by the New York Times, the irregularities don't necessarily mean that any manipulation occurred. While the Group of Copenhagen's research was coordinated with FIFA’s own Integrity Task Force, FIFA has released its own findings claiming that “no suspicious betting activity or indications of match manipulation in connection with any fixture” had been identified.