This Is When Our World Will Reach “Peak Glacier Extinction” – And It's Coming Soon

It’s looking like the generations of the future will inherit a world where glaciers are a shockingly rare sight. Our planet is currently home to more than 200,000 glaciers, but if climate change is left to fester, this figure could plummet to as low as 18,000 within this century.

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Glaciers are ancient accumulations of ice on top of mountains and frozen peaks that gently slump downhill over time, like a super-slow-motion river. In the wake of warming temperatures, they fail to be restocked due to a lack of snow and icy temperatures. Meanwhile, their ice is thawing from within, causing them to shrink and recede. 

This is a problem that’s occurring worldwide due to rising temperatures. In a new study by ETH Zürich in Switzerland, scientists have assessed the global picture of glacier loss based on several different climate projections (in other words, how much effort the world puts into addressing climate change). 

Their work attempted to find the so-called “Peak Glacier Extinction”, the zenith when the number of glaciers disappearing within a single year reaches its peak.

If the world limits climate change to a 1.5°C (2.7°F) rise, this would occur around 2041, when roughly 2,000 glaciers vanish in just one year. 

But bear in mind that it’s looking unlikely that this is where rising temperatures will stop – Earth's average temperature has risen by about 1.2°C (2.16°F) since the Industrial Revolution and there’s still a long way to go. At 4°C (7.2°F) rise in global temperatures – the so-called “Business as Usual” model – the peak shifts to about 2055, but will involve the collapse of 4,000 glaciers. 

The timeline for total collapse will play out differently across the globe. Here’s how the “survival rate” is set to pan out in different regions by the year 2100:

Commenting on their study, Lander Van Tricht, lead author and professor of glaciology at ETH Zürich, said in a statement: “For the first time, we’ve put years on when every single glacier on Earth will disappear.”

Another big question is how the en masse melting of glaciers will affect the world. While the loss of a few isolated glaciers won't noticeably nudge global sea levels, the collective collapse of the world’s giants will. 

But size and scale aren’t everything. Even small glaciers act as life-support systems for local communities who rely on them for drinking water, agriculture, hydropower, and tourism. If these icy frontiers disappear, many people will be left dangerously high and dry.

“Every glacier is tied to a place, a story and people who feel its loss,” said Van Tricht. “That’s why we work both to protect the glaciers that remain and to keep alive the memory of those that are gone,” he added.

The study is published in the journal Nature Climate Change.